The West Before the After

ÎnOnly a decisive Ukrainian victory is now the guaranteed path to a lasting peace, a free Europe and, ultimately, a better Russia, in the great Ukrainian counter-offensive, that could launch at any time and no one can predict any outcome for. That alone would be the new Victory Day, argues British historian Timothy Garton Ash, in an analysis published in The Guardian. He also notes that a decisive victory for Kiev would mean a defeat for Russia that not even Putin's propaganda machine could hide. The road to victory, however, would bring a moment of heightened risk. Is the West prepared to meet the challenges of such a moment?

Strategy of a Madman

The war originated exclusively in Putin's brain, and he never had a plan B. Plan A was a swift victory. It failed. Now the Kremlin leader finds himself in a no-win, no-loss, no-stop situation. Thomas Friedman, foreign policy columnist for The New York Times, writes about what is Kremlin's leader most afraid of and what are the two ways he can still end this "war he can't get out of". Friedman also speculates that Putin wouldn't have gone so far if he hadn't feared that everyone in Russia is talking around corners about how bad the war is going and how to avoid fighting it.

Another Day for Victory

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany on 8 May, according to European tradition, instead of 9 May, according to Soviet tradition, reports Deutsche Welle. German reporters asked people on the streets near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Kiev what they think about their leader's proposal, and the answers were overwhelmingly positive. Research confirmed that Russia's war in Ukraine influenced Ukrainians' attitudes towards commemorating World War II, and every year, the German publication added, the percentage of Ukrainians honouring 8 May as Remembrance and Reconciliation Day steadily increased.

The Future, Today

Meduza, a banned publication in Russia, reports that over the past few months, independent Ukrainian and Russian media outlets published several audio recordings of alleged private phone conversations, involving elite members of Russian politics, business and society, harshly criticizing President Vladimir Putin, his policies and the ongoing war in Ukraine. If proved authentic, these recordings are an important tool to gauge the mood of people close to the Russian authorities, the publication argues, citing statements from several Russian company executives and a former high-ranking security official quoted by iStories reporters.

Russia's Fortifications

Reuters features four maps of fortifications built by Russia along its border with Ukraine and in Russian-controlled territory. The agency quotes experts providing a detailed description of the fortifications, discussing the dangers they pose, how they can be managed and countered, and what might follow. "How the frontline changes in 2023 will depend on where will Ukraine choose to focus its attacks, what forces it will deploy and how well prepared is Russia in all those particular regions," argues one of the experts quoted by Reuters.

Interview

G4media published an extensive interview with the Romanian historian Cosmin Popa, analysing Putin's last speech, presented during the celebration of the Soviet victory against the Nazis in World War II. Among other things, the historian argues that Kremlin leader's speech shows his weakness leaving room for negotiations, and that, through the conflict with Prigozhin, the Russians prepare a false opposition for the 2024 elections, and he discusses Kiev's advantages in postponing the counteroffensive.

Wagner on grave notes

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the paramilitary Russian Wagner Group, stands in front of a field of corpses and screams. He yells and curses on camera, pointing at the bodies of his men. He grows more and more angry as the video continues, blaming the deaths of his men on Russia's two highest-ranking military officials: Defence Minister Sergei Shigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. According to Prigozhin, both leaders denied Wagner fighters the artillery ammunition needed to defend themselves. Watch a viral video about Russia's combat struggle in Ukraine on vox.com.

For Better, Not Worse

Well over a year since Putin's invasion in Ukraine, analysts quoted by Deutsche Welle argue war likely fast-tracked Europe's energy transition.